The question on many people's minds today is whether or not now is the right time to jump back into the market to buy stocks. I admit that I have been thinking about this question for the last few weeks as I watched with disbelief as the stock market rallied about 36% from the bottom formed on March 9th, 2009. Three weeks prior to this bottom, I sent an email to my readers and told them to get out of the stock market because all hell was going to break loose. Turns out that I was right for about three weeks, then the markets defied all odds and went the other way. I guess that's what the market is supposed to do. In this article, I will give you my analysis of what happened and I will tell you about what investments I like at this time.
The Unbelievable Rally
Many well respected market analysts have expressed surprise with the Spring 2009 stock market rally. All the economic indicators were very negative and there was no fundamental reason for the markets to go up. It was supposed to be a bear market rally, or a short squeeze. I was waiting patiently for the market to turn back down before I entered additional short positions. That never happened.
What I believe happened is that our government began a coordinated effort to turn our stock market around. I never thought this would be possible, but this administration has shown that they will boldly go where no government should go. I remember clearly the day that all the financial news turned on a dime and started issuing positive spin on all the economic data. This coincided with bullish statements from Obama, Geitner, and Bernanke. All of a sudden, we were going to see the worst of the recession in the middle of 2009, and we may even see positive GDP growth by the fourth quarter of this year. On top of that, Obama became a financial advisor to the American people, and told everyone to buy stocks. At the time, I thought Obama was being a rash fool. Now I understand why I should never bet against the government.
The government has intervened in the market in ways that make most investors uncomfortable. Who wants to put their money into the market when the rules keep changing. They changed accounting rules and accounting periods, all of a sudden the banks are reporting earning gains instead of losses. How could this be possible? Then there were the stress tests. All the market and bank pros were saying how inadequate and flawed the stress tests were, yet somehow the bank stocks kept rising, even as they were told by the government that they would need to raise more capital. I guess most people thought the results were going to be worse then they ended up being, and they decided that the government really meant what they said about not letting any of the big banks fail.
The Moose Market (or The Sideways Market)
So now that the party is over, and the banks were able to issue more stocks at inflated prices, what are we in for next. Many people are forecasting a sideways market. I guess a moose attacks in a sideways manner, instead of upwards or downwards as the bull and bear do. This is the most probable event, in my opinion. We had a nice rally already, the bad news is not getting any worse, it seems that the credit markets have thawed, and the fiscal stimulus is starting to kick in. The only thing left to do is for the economy and the markets to recover.
The problem is this, where are all the jobs going to come from? We have lost over 5 million jobs so far, and the weekly unemployment numbers are still very bad. Housing prices are expected to continue their descent as a new wave of foreclosures is expected and current inventory levels are still very high. How are all of our favorite companies going to make money in this type of environment? I don't know the answer to these questions, but I believe it will take a year or two for things to get back to positive growth. Even then, we have the real risk that Obama will increase taxes in one way or another to pay for his budget and his welfare programs, precisely when our economy will be hurt by such action. Add to this the fact that Americans are saving more and being more stingy with their money, and you get a fairly glum outlook for the foreseeable future.
One bright spot I see is that most investors have recently shown an increased appetite for risk. There have been enormous amounts of money on the sidelines, and some of it is starting to move back into the markets after seeing the recent rally. An interesting fact is that over 50% of the stock market is owned by people with over $5 million net worth, and 80% of the market is held by people with over $1 million. These people don't really need the money to feed their family today, and they can afford to take some risk. I believe these people are who will decide the fate of the market in the near term.
The Answer to the Question
The short answer is "Yes, you should buy stocks." The long answer is, "You should do your homework and buy stocks with a long term horizon." The following paragraphs discuss various investment classes that I feel would be prudent buys at this time.
Disclaimer: I don't purport to give investment advice, and all of my picks should be considered as educational and informative of my thought processes. I have holdings in some of the mentioned investments and I may change my holdings at any time without notice.Like most great investors, I am constantly striving for the highest return with the least amount of risk. With recent market uncertainty, I started looking into high dividend strategies that would take advantage of today's relatively low market prices, yet would provide some level of positive return in case the markets went back down. I plan on writing articles covering these investments in more detail, but for now I'll briefly mention them here for your benefit.
I have been looking into well diversified funds that hold high yield bonds, convertible bonds, and investment grade bonds. I have also been looking at royalty trusts, real estate investment trusts, and private equity funds. All these investments offer dividend yields ranging from 8% to 25%. Some of these returns are very high because the stock prices have come down so low. They are not without risk, but through careful research I have identified some that are less risky and more likely to continue paying out those high dividends.
Another area that I like right now are commodities and commodity related stocks. The previously mentioned royalty trusts usually are based on commodities and their prices and dividends are correlated to the prices of commodities. I have already bought some securities related to natural gas prices and oil prices, and I plan on buying more when the time is right. I feel that commodity prices are at or near their lows, and with emerging market growth seeming to lead the world out of the global recession, I think now is a good time to buy.
As far as emerging markets go, I currently like China and Brazil. China has spent 12 times as much to stimulate their economy as the United States have, and they appear to be stockpiling iron, copper, and oil at today's low prices. China has been able to respond more strongly to the economic crisis due to their state run government.
Brazil is an amazing economy that has a lot of natural resources that China and the rest of the world need. From this point of view, Brazil's market should do well as the world comes out of recession and demands more commodities to fuel growth. Also, Brazil itself is a growing nation with a lot of demand for housing and computers and all the other "necessities" of a developed country.
Another way to play the commodity card, and to position yourself for the inevitable decline of the US dollar, is to buy the currency of strong commodity nations. My top picks would be Australia and Canada. Australia was actually able to muster positive employment numbers recently, suggesting that it is coming out of the global recession ahead of its English-speaking peers. You don't necessarily need to open a forex account to take advantage of this. I believe there are currency ETFs that could be used to place these bets, or you could do some homework and pick some Australian, Brazilian, and Canadian stocks that trade on our stock exchanges.
Last, but not least, I believe this would be a good time to buy some of the best stocks at a discount. The next few months will probably be one of the best times to buy the stocks of great companies at low prices. I know that many of them already rallied, and that there still may be another pull back in the near future, but for long term investors, there are some great values out there waiting for your money. We may not see positive earnings growth for another two or three quarters, but the stock market is a forward looking mechanism and many savvy investors have already placed their bets with this knowledge. This is the age of the stock picker.
What do You Think?
I am always interested in what people think about the markets and I encourage you to post your questions and comments right here on this website. Just type something in the comment box. There is no need to register or sign up for anything.